Syria likely shot down U.S. drone, official says
WASHINGTON — The Syrian military appears to have shot down the Predator drone lost by the U.S. Air Force on Tuesday in the northwest part of that country, according to a senior U.S. official.
Military officials are scrambling to determine if the Predator — the first warplane lost by the military in its fight against Islamic State extremists — was attacked in airspace previously patrolled safely since September by the U.S.-led coalition. The answer to that question will determine what, if any, retaliation against the Syrian military is justified.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because the incident is under investigation.
The drone appears to belong to European Command, according to a senior military officer who was not authorized to speak on the record. Central Command is conducting the air war in Syria. European operates in neighboring Israel and Turkey, lending credence to the idea that the drone might have veered off course.
If the drone veered into sensitive airspace by mistake, the calculation would change. In that case, the daily airstrikes taking place there could continue with few changes. The Predator, an older model drone, is being phased out in favor of larger, faster, unmanned aircraft, and its wreckage would be of little value to the Syrians.
Syria has sophisticated air defenses that it considers sensitive, U.S. military officials have said. Most of those areas are found in the east, in and around the capital of Damascus to protect people and infrastructure vital to the regime of Bashar Assad.
The downing of a manned U.S. aircraft would be a major crisis. ISIS militants burned alive a Jordanian pilot whose F-16 crashed in Syria earlier this year.
Drone accidents in war zones occur on occasion. U.S. forces lost more than 80 of the aircraft in Iraq and Afghanistan during fighting there, according to NATO in 2011. The guidance system on a Predator, valued at about $4.5 million, can be disrupted with electronic jamming systems.
The circumstances of the drone's destruction are important, said Michael O'Hanlon, military analyst at the Brookings Institution. So is sending a powerful message to Assad that destroying U.S. military hardware has a cost.
"I'd probably be inclined to retaliate, so that Assad knows if he keeps up such behavior, worse things could befall him," O'Hanlon said. "I believe we will need to do more over coming weeks and months in Syria, and so establishing credibility and thus deterrence is important."
The civil war that has raged in Syria has killed hundreds of thousands of civilians and helped establish havens in the country for ISIS militants to operate. The U.S. strategy to train and equip Syrian moderates to fight ISIS has yet to materialize after months of planning.