Russian airstrikes in Syria are gambit to extend influence

WASHINGTON — Russian airstrikes in Syria are the latest step in President Vladimir Putin’s strategy to expand influence in the Middle East, a plan that threatens to undercut America’s fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, analysts say.

“This is the beginning of what will be a long-term Russian strategic presence in the Middle East,” said Ali Khedery, a former special assistant to five U.S. ambassadors in Iraq.

The Russians launched 14 new airstrikes Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry said, according to the Associated Press. On Thursday their targets included an Islamic State position near Raqqa, the militant group’s defacto capital in Syria, the Russians said.

Still, most of their attacks were in areas outside Islamic State strongholds. The United States and other countries have accused Russia of using the airstrikes to shore up the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad instead of targeting the Islamic State, which is also called ISIL. Putin "doesn’t distinguish between ISIL and a moderate Sunni opposition that wants to see Mr.Assad go," President Obama said at a press conference Friday.

The Obama administration has said Russia's military actions in Syria are doomed to fail. "Mr Putin had to go into Syria not out of strength but out of weakness because his client, Mr. Assad, was crumbling," Obama said.

American allies lined up to criticize Russian moves in the region. Russia’s actions will “only fuel more extremism and radicalization," France, Turkey, the United States, Germany, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Britain said in a joint statement.

Russia has claimed it is going after the Islamic State, the al-Qaeda-linked Nusra Front and other extremist groups.

Whether or not future Russian targets include the Islamic State, the nation appears to be determined to go their own way by hitting targets of their choosing. The U.S. has little communication with Russia over the airstrikes; it only had an hour's warning when they began Wednesday.

Russian and U.S. officials held talks Thursday, but the meeting was aimed narrowly at setting up procedures to avoid miscalculations between warplanes sharing the same airspace. The talks concluded without an agreement for when to meet next.

The Russian airstrikes complicate U.S. efforts to build a moderate opposition in Syria designed to counter the Islamic State there. Pentagon efforts to train and deploy such forces stalled before this week's airstrikes, but any future recruitment could be difficult if the Pentagon doesn’t provide U.S.-backed rebels with guarantees of protection if they come under Russian attack.

Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook declined to say if such protections would apply. “You're talking about a hypothetical situation, in which case specific opposition forces would be targeted, and we don't have that situation right in front of us right now,” he said.

While Russia builds up its presence in Syria, its military has also gained a foothold in Baghdad, where it established an intelligence unit with Iraq, Syria and Iran to share information, presumably about the Islamic State. That is a worrying development, analysts say, because it comes at a time when some Iraqi politicians have expressed frustration with the U.S.-led coalition air campaign, saying the airstrikes haven’t done enough to drive out the militants.

For months, Iraqi forces backed by coalition aircraft have been trying to liberate Ramadi, a key Sunni city in western Iraq, from Islamic State control. Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul, has been under militant control for more than a year. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi told France 24 he would welcome Russian airstrikes.

Ismael Alsodani, a retired Iraqi brigadier general, said the Iraqis are looking for help wherever they can get it. “The top priority for Iraq is to get rid of Dash, no matter how,” Alsodani said, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State.

Russia is using that need as an opportunity to expand their influence in Iraq, analysts say. “Iraq is low hanging fruit,” Khedery said. “It is primed to pivot away from the United States.”

Iraq’s Shiite-dominated government has close ties to Iran, a key Russian ally in the Middle East, which makes Russia a natural draw for many Iraqi government leaders. The Kurds and some Sunnis view the Americans more favorably.

Some Shiite leaders welcome the Russians since the United States has been putting pressure on the Shiite-dominated government to make concessions with Sunnis.

“Russian air support in Syria has strengthened the hand of Iranian backers in Baghdad to not give into American pressure to compromise with Sunnis,” said Sterling Jensen, an assistant professor at the United Arab Emirates' National Defense College in Abu Dhabi.

Still, it would be difficult for Iraq to disentangle from U.S. military support, which it has relied heavily on over the past year. The United States has launched more than 4,600 airstrikes in Iraq over the past year, targeting Islamic State positions. It has 3,359 military personnel there and has trained 15,000 total Iraqi security personnel. It has supplied Iraq’s military with armored vehicles, small arms and millions or rounds of ammunition.

With the U.S.'s backing, Iraq’s military has helped protect Baghdad and taken back large swaths of territory captured by the Islamic State. “There is more progress being made than sometimes we give ourselves credit for,” said Col. Steve Warren, a coalition military spokesman in Iraq.

In the meantime, Iraq will likely accept help from both sides, analysts say. “But if push comes to shove they will pick Russia,” Khedery said.