The coronavirus could force change on Boston area colleges — and higher ed institutions across Massachusetts and the nation — as enrollment is likely to drop this fall amid the unpredictable pandemic, experts tell the Herald.
Administrative staff at universities and colleges will have to be cut, predicts Glenn Reynolds, a University of Tennessee law professor. Individual classes will be larger, resulting in fewer faculty members, he said.
“The pandemic is accelerating changes for universities,” said Reynolds, author of “The New School.” “They were already under pressure to reduce costs and move classes online.”
Enrollment for the next academic year will drop by 15%, the American Council on Education predicts. The council estimates a decline of 25% for international students. The 15% enrollment drop would trigger a $23 billion revenue loss.
“Next year looks like it will be a rough year for colleges with many students taking gap years,” Reynolds said. “There will be extra pressure on universities to entice people in a variety of ways.”
Online learning will attract more people because of its cheaper cost, convenience and safety, Reynolds said.
Universities are being sued for not adjusting their tuition costs after students were sent home in March to learn online.
“Many students and parents will be reluctant to pay for a full-ticket price for college that’s taught remotely,” said Greg Sullivan of the Pioneer Institute. “Colleges will have to offer reduced tuition for online courses.”
“Even if there’s a modest reduction in enrollment of 10% next year, colleges will face a substantial drop in revenue because of the loss of room and board,” Sullivan said. “That’s a direct correlation with layoffs and budget cuts.”
Northeastern President Joseph Aoun recently wrote to the campus community, “It is our intention to reopen our campuses this fall and offer on-site instruction and a residential experience for our students.”
He added, “While we continue to believe that classroom instruction should be the norm, we will offer many large lectures in both live and recorded formats, while some of our other classes will allow for both live and remote participation.”
Boston University is planning to resume its on-campus, residential program in the fall. The university’s COVID-19 Recovery Plan also includes various contingencies in the event public health authorities limit or do not allow residential colleges to reopen in the fall.
Harvard Provost Alan Garber recently wrote to community members, “Harvard will be open for fall 2020 … but because most projections suggest that COVID-19 will remain a serious threat during the coming months, we cannot be certain that it will be safe to resume all usual activities on campus by then. Consequently, we will need to prepare for a scenario in which much or all learning will be conducted remotely.”
A Tufts University spokesman said in a statement, “We continue to plan for a range of possible scenarios for the fall and beyond, including a potential return to in-person classes. We recognize that any resumption of on-campus activities will necessarily involve significant planning to reduce risk of exposure to our students, faculty, and staff.”
