How Traffic to This YouTube Video Predicts ISIS Attacks

Defense One: A YouTube video’s best day, traffic-wise, is usually the day it gets posted. Clicks generally decline quickly and post-launch spikes are rare. On Dec. 18, a year-old jihadist video called “Black Flags of Islam and Imam Mahdi” saw just such a spike, receiving enough views to reach about 70 percent of its best day’s traffic. Eight days later, an ISIS-affiliated suicide bomber detonated an explosive belt at an Ahmadi mosque in the Bangladeshi town of Bagmara, an unexpected uptick in Islamic State tactics in the country.

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